1. General Model Information

Name: The Automated Regional Ecological Forecast System

Acronym: AREFS

Main medium: all
Main subject: agriculture, forestry
Organization level: Ecosystem, Landscape
Type of model: difference equations (2D)
Main application: decision support/expert system, research
Keywords: EIA, forestry, agriculture, watersheds assessment


Prof. Pyotr M. Khomjakov

Institute for System Analysis,
off. 919, bld. 9, 60-letya Oktyabrya ave.,
117532 Moscow Russia
phone: +7 (095) 135-44-37
fax: +7 (095) 135-44-37
email: khomjakv@isa.ac.ru
email: iagro@com2com.ru


prof., ph.d. Pyotr M. Khomjakv, prof., ph.d. Sergey A. Pegov


The Automated Regional Ecological Forecast System (AREFS) is intended for estimation of agroecological systems dynamics at a regional scale (in 50-5000 km^2 area range). It comprises a set of simulation models of all basic regional ecosystem components (soil cover, vegetation, ground water deposits and quality, relief characteristics, atmospheric circulation, pollutants accumulation and migration). It is a complex finite state model; the dynamics of an agroecological system are being represented as transition between pre-defined functional states. Each component of an agroecosystem is identified by a polynomial aggregated index, characterizing itís participation in the whole systemís functioning. The dynamics of a system are estimated using a recursive discrete algorithm:
  1. determination of aggregated indexes
  2. recognition of system state
  3. appraisal of external influence
  4. assessment of system state change
subsequent recognition of system state (step 2). The simulation step is one year. Using aggregated indexes instead of direct values greatly improves the model performance and significantly simplifies forecasting process. The AREFS model was certified and recommended by the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Russian Federation. It was successfully used for estimation of consequences caused by Chernobyl nuclear incident (1990); development of Land Use Program for Central Chernozem region of Russia (1995) and in a number of international projects (IGBP program for global climate warming assessment and others). The AREFS model was developed in Institute for System Analysis of Russian Academy of Sciences (ISA RAS) in cooperation with soil science faculty of Moscow State University (MSU).

II. Technical Information

II.1 Executables:

Operating System(s): MS DOS / Windows

II.2 Source-code:

Programming Language(s): C

II.3 Manuals:

Printed documentation freely available under request

II.4 Data:

III. Mathematical Information

III.1 Mathematics

III.2 Quantities

The AREFS model simulates dynamics of more than 300 parameters, characterizing socio-economical development of a regional geoecosystem.

A complete list of input and output data names, other important data is available from developers board (khomjakv@isa.ac.ru)

For ease of reference, predicted values are divided into six groups, each of them being characterized by an aggregated index. As AREFS is a recursive model, the same set of input and output variables is presented. This is an abridged version of data specification; a complete documentation contains more than 300 values.

  1. Geomorphological and Hydrological characteristics.
    • Maximum erosion basis depth (m)
    • Average erosion basis depth (m)
    • Average width of valleys (m)
    • Average groundwater edge depth (m)
    • Average depth of watertight layers (m)
    • Density of hydrographic network - non-transit rivers (km / sq. km)
    • Density of hydrographic network - transit rivers (km / sq. km)
    • Density of lakes (sq. %)
    • Salinity of groundwater (g / l)
    • Salinity of artesian water (g / l)
    • Mineralization of river water (g / l)
    • Infiltration (cub. m / sq. m)
    • Broadwater volume (cub. m / sq. m)
    • Maximum water retention - surface layers (cub. m / sq. m)
  2. Climatological characteristics
    • Average temperature (gr. C)
    • Average precipitation (mm)
    • Average winds velocity (m / s)
    • Climatological characteristics variability (Cv, %)
    • Continentality of climate (rel. %)
  3. Land use characteristics
    • Lands under forests - watersheds (rel. %)
    • Lands under forests - terraces (rel. %)
    • Lands under forests - bogs (rel. %)
    • Lands under meadows - watersheds (rel.%)
    • Lands under meadows - terraces (rel.%)
    • Lands under meadows - bogs (rel.%)
    • Lands under tillage - watersheds (rel. %)
    • Lands under tillage - terraces (rel. %)
    • Lands under tillage - bogs (rel. %)
  4. Cryogeological characteristics
    • Permanent ice layers roof depth (m)
    • Permanent ice layers basis depth (m)
    • Relative volume of ice layers (%)
    • Surface temperature gradient (gr. / m)
  5. Vegetation characteristics
    • Living biomass (kg / sq. km)
    • Mortmass (kg / sq. km)
    • Capacity of biogeochemical turn-over - Si, C, N, P, K, S, Ca, Mg, trace elements (kg)
  6. Soils characteristics
    • Deposits of extractable phosphorous (mg / kg)
    • Deposits of extractable potassium (mg / kg)
    • Deposits of available nitrogen (mg / kg)
    • Soils salinity (%)
    • Soils acidity - actual (pH), pH - dependent (mg / kg)
    • Water retention capacity (cub. m / sq. m)
    • Loads of fertilizers (kg / sq. km for each element)
    • Accumulation of pollutants - sulfur and nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, Pb, Hg, Cd, Cs, Sr and others (kg / sq. km)

III.2.1 Input

A complete list of input and output data names, other important data is avilable from developers board (khomjakv@isa.ac.ru)

III.2.2 Output

A complete list of input and output data names, other important data is avilable from developers board (khomjakv@isa.ac.ru)

IV. References

Khomjakov D.M., Khomjakov P.M. Application Of Regional Ecological Forecast System
In Practical Activity. Moscow: MSU Publishers, 1996. 36 p.

Khomjakov D.M., Iskandarjan R.A. Information Technologies And Mathematical Modeling
In Environmental Studies. Moscow: GEOS, 1997. pp. 102-119.

Khomjakov D.M., Khomjakov P.M. Modeling The Impact Of Anthropogenic And Meteorological Factors Onto Agroecocenosis.
Moscow: MSU Publishers, 1995. 80 p.

Pegov S.A., Khomjakov P.M. Modeling The Development Of Ecological Systems.
Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1991. 220 p.

Khomjakov D.M., Khomjakov P.M. A Basic Course Of System Analysis.
Moscow, MSU Publishers, 1996. 108 p.

V. Further information in the World-Wide-Web

VI. Additional remarks

Earlier versions of AREFS system are also known under the REF acronym (Regional Ecological Forecast).
Last review of this document by: Rouben A. Iskandarjan Thu Jul 9 07:22:14 1998
Status of the document: Contributed by Rouben A. Iskandarjan
last modified by Tobias Gabele Wed Aug 21 21:44:39 CEST 2002

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