1. General Model Information
Name: Catastrophe Theory Model
Main medium: terrestrial
Main subject: populationdynamics
Organization level: ecosystem
Type of model: not specified
Keywords: grasshopper infestations, predictive, site specific, historic, catastrophe theory
Department of Renewable Resources
University of Wyoming
Laramie, WY 82071-3354
Phone: (307) 766-4260
Fax: (307) 766-6403
Lockwood, J.A., and D. R. Lockwood
The Catastrophe Theory Model is a model which predicts grasshopper infestations
based on climatic data (mean daily temperature and three month precipitation
accumulations) and historic site specific information relevant to grasshopper
population preferences. The model uses catastrophe theory to predict
grasshopper infestations based on the grasshopper infestation level in the
previous year and the weather data for the current year.
Author of the abstract:
CIESIN (CONSORTIUM FOR
INTERNATIONAL EARTH SCIENCE INFORMATION NETWORK):
II. Technical Information
Operating System(s): Developed on a PC-386 using a math co-processor
Programming Language(s): Pascal
III. Mathematical Information
Average daily temperature and precipitation for two monthperiod.
Temporal Scale: 50 years, 1944-1994.
Spatial Scale: Ecophysiographic regions within a state. 6 ectopographic regions. Statewideregions under development.
- Lockwood, J. A. 1995. Grasshopper ecology. In S. K. Gangwere and M. C. Muralirangan [eds.], Bionomics of grasshoppers and their relatives, CABI, London (in press).
- Lockwood, J. A., L. D. DeBrey, C. D. Thompson, C. M. Love, R. A. Nunamaker, S. R. Shaw, S. P. Schell, C. R. Bomar. 1994. The preserved insect fauna of the Wind River Glaciers (Fremont County, U.S.A.): insights to the ecology of the extinct Rocky Mountain Locust. Environ. Entomol. 23:220-235.
- Lockwood, J. A., H. C. Li, J. L. Dodd, and S. E. Williams. 1994. Comparison of grasshopper ecology on the Inner Mongolian grasslands of the Asian steppe and the Great Plains of North America. J. Orthop. Res. 2:4-14.
- Lockwood, J. A. 1993. Environmental issues involved in the biological control of rangeland grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae) with exotic agents. Environ. Entomol. 22:503-518.
- Lockwood, J. A. and D. R. Lockwood. 1993. A unified paradigm of rangeland ecosystem dynamics through the application of catastrophe theory. J. Range Manage. 46:282-288.
- Bomar, C. R., J. A. Lockwood, M. A. Pomerinke, and J. D. French. 1993. A multi-year evaluation of the effects of Nosema locustae (Microsporidia: Nosematidae) on rangeland grasshopper (Orthoptera: Acrididae) population density, fecundity, and natural biological controls. Environ. Entomol. 22:489-497.
- Lockwood, J. A. and D. R. Lockwood. 1991. Rangeland grasshopperpopulation dynamics: insights from catastrophe theory. Environ. Entomol. 20:970-980
V. Further information in the World-Wide-Web
VI. Additional remarks
Validation Procedures: Predicted 28 years of infestation in a series of trials and trackperformance with real data that is available.
Last review of this document by: T. Gabele: 20. 6. 1997 -
Status of the document:
last modified by
Tobias Gabele Wed Aug 21 21:44:40 CEST 2002