1. General Model Information

Name: Catastrophe Theory Model


Main medium: terrestrial
Main subject: populationdynamics
Organization level: ecosystem
Type of model: not specified
Main application:
Keywords: grasshopper infestations, predictive, site specific, historic, catastrophe theory


J.A. Lockwood
Department of Renewable Resources
University of Wyoming
Laramie, WY 82071-3354

Phone: (307) 766-4260
Fax: (307) 766-6403
email: lockwood@uwyo.edu


Lockwood, J.A., and D. R. Lockwood


The Catastrophe Theory Model is a model which predicts grasshopper infestations based on climatic data (mean daily temperature and three month precipitation accumulations) and historic site specific information relevant to grasshopper population preferences. The model uses catastrophe theory to predict grasshopper infestations based on the grasshopper infestation level in the previous year and the weather data for the current year.

Author of the abstract:


II. Technical Information

II.1 Executables:

Operating System(s): Developed on a PC-386 using a math co-processor

II.2 Source-code:

Programming Language(s): Pascal

II.3 Manuals:

II.4 Data:

III. Mathematical Information

III.1 Mathematics

III.2 Quantities

III.2.1 Input

Average daily temperature and precipitation for two monthperiod.

III.2.2 Output

Temporal Scale: 50 years, 1944-1994.
Spatial Scale: Ecophysiographic regions within a state. 6 ectopographic regions. Statewideregions under development.

IV. References

V. Further information in the World-Wide-Web

VI. Additional remarks

Validation Procedures: Predicted 28 years of infestation in a series of trials and trackperformance with real data that is available.
Last review of this document by: T. Gabele: 20. 6. 1997 -
Status of the document:
last modified by Tobias Gabele Wed Aug 21 21:44:40 CEST 2002

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