1. General Model Information

Name: Forest stand development under different ranges of silviculture


Main medium: terrestrial
Main subject: forestry,biogeochemistry
Organization level:
Type of model: not specified
Main application:
Keywords: forest, forest stand development


Al Stage
Forest Services Laboratory
1221 South Main Street
ID 83843
Fax : 208 883-2318



PROGNOSIS is a model used to simulate forest stand development under different ranges of silviculture. It is a predictive, simulation, probabilistic and process-oriented model. The model has been validated by comparing output against 15 years of data collected on forest stand management in Montana and Idaho. The model has over a dozen variants (Schuster et al., 1993), each designed for specific locations in the United States.

The model requires input data on several site factors (e.g. slope, aspect, geographic area, vegetation classes), an inventory of the existing stand, and an inventory of grasses and shrubs. The model produces output in tabular format including tree description, crown width, cover and horizontal and vertical projections for each species.

PROGNOSIS is typically executed to examine forest stand development over fifty year periods, assuming a static environment. Most model runs are single-stand although multistand runs are possible.

The model can be linked to other existing modules, such as economic, pest (insect and diseases; e.g. PROGNOSIS PEST EX) and natural resource routines. Wide use within the US-Forest Service and the additional modules that have been developed.

Author of the abstract:


II. Technical Information

II.1 Executables:

Operating System(s): DOS, UNIX and Macintosh

II.2 Source-code:

Programming Language(s): FORTRAN and C++

II.3 Manuals:

II.4 Data:

III. Mathematical Information

III.1 Mathematics

III.2 Quantities

III.2.1 Input

III.2.2 Output

IV. References

Schuster, E.G., L.A. Leefers and J.E. Thompson. 1993.
A guide to computer-based analytical tools for implementing national forest plans. USDA-FS General Technical Report INT-296: Intermountain Research Station. Ogden, Utah.

V. Further information in the World-Wide-Web

VI. Additional remarks

Global change implications:The model can be linked to other existingmodules, such as economic, pest (insect and diseases; e.g. PROGNOSISPEST EX) and natural resource routines.This model could be important to global change research becauseof its wide use within the Forest Service and the additionalmodules that have been developed.

FVS has replaced PROGNOSIS. Actually, they are the same program.
However, all updates and corrections to the program are now known as FVS.

Last review of this document by: R. Patzak : 17. September 1997 -
Status of the document:
last modified by Tobias Gabele Wed Aug 21 21:44:47 CEST 2002

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